Blog | Association Management Insights | Rhythm

Using Last Year’s Participation Data to Decide Which Programs to Invest In Next

Written by Kelli Catts | Jan 21, 2026 2:30:00 PM

At some point every year, every association hits the same wall: you can’t keep investing in everything the same way.

Your calendar is full. Staff capacity is finite. Leadership wants a plan they can stand behind. And last year’s participation data — registrations, attendance, completions, volunteer activity, renewals tied to engagement — starts looking less like “reporting” and more like a way out of decision paralysis.

The catch is that participation data doesn’t automatically tell you what to do next. Without a consistent method, program planning turns into a mix of anecdotes, tradition, and internal politics. The loudest perspective wins, not the clearest signal.

This post lays out a practical way to use last year’s participation data to decide where to invest next without needing perfect dashboards or a data team.

The real problem isn’t lack of data — it’s lack of a decision method

Most associations have participation signals. What they often don’t have is a shared way to interpret those signals across different program types.

That’s why you can end up with meetings where everyone technically agrees on the numbers, but no one agrees on what the numbers mean. The debate isn’t about data. It’s about definitions, assumptions, and priorities — just hidden under the surface.

A good decision method does two things:

  • It makes participation comparable across programs that behave differently (events vs education vs volunteer engagement).
  • It makes recommendations easier to defend, because your “why” is consistent and visible.

Once you have that, participation data stops being a pile of exports and becomes a planning asset.

Step 1: Define what “participation” means before you analyze anything

The fastest way to misread your year is treating “registrations” as the participation metric for everything.

Registrations measure interest. They don’t always measure value delivered.

Before you pull reports or open spreadsheets, decide what participation actually means for each program category. Keep it small — two to four signals per category is usually enough — and choose signals that match the job of that program.

Here are participation signals many associations use (pick what fits):

  • Events and conferences: registrations, attendance rate, repeat attendance (and session engagement signals if you track them)
  • Webinars: registrations, live attendance rate, on-demand views (if applicable), repeat attendance across a series
  • Courses / online learning: enrollments, completion rate, time-to-complete, repeat learners
  • Certifications / credentials: applicants/enrollments, completion/pass rate, renewals/recertification
  • Committees / volunteering: attendance consistency, volunteer retention, new volunteer inflow
  • Community / engagement programs: active participation (however you define it), repeat engagement, and “stickiness” over time

This step isn’t busywork. It’s what prevents later conversations from spiraling into “yeah but…” arguments. You’re setting the rules of interpretation up front, while the stakes are lower.

Step 2: Pull the data you can trust and label what you can’t

Most associations hesitate at this stage because the data isn’t perfect. Participation may live across an AMS, an LMS, an online community, an email tool, and a few spreadsheets that only one person understands. Some programs track outcomes precisely, others don’t. Program naming and categorization may have drifted across the year.

That’s normal.

You don’t need perfect data to make better decisions. You need data that’s consistent enough to compare. The key is to approach the pull with clarity about what’s “clean,” what’s “directional,” and what’s simply unknown so you don’t overstate your conclusions.

A simple trust baseline keeps you moving without pretending everything is pristine:

  • You’re using a consistent time window across programs you’re comparing
  • Program names/categories are standardized enough that one program isn’t split into multiple entries
  • You’ve accounted for or noted system changes (platform switch, pricing change, format change, tracking change)
  • You can identify duplicates or missing fields, even if you can’t perfectly fix them yet
  • You’ve added a short “Known limitations” note so stakeholders don’t derail the work later

That honesty doesn’t weaken your analysis. It strengthens trust in your recommendations.

Step 3: Segment before you interpret

Aggregate participation numbers are often the most misleading ones.

A program can look stable overall while a key segment quietly disengages. Or it can appear to be declining in total volume while a strategic audience is growing and becoming more loyal. If you only look at the topline metric, you’ll miss the story that should drive your investment decision.

The goal of segmentation isn’t complexity. It’s clarity.

Choose one or two segments that actually affect decisions, then look at participation through that lens. For many associations, the most revealing segmentation is some combination of new versus tenured members, member type/career stage, geography (especially for chapters), or specialty/industry groupings.

Who is this program serving right now? And is that who we need it to serve next cycle?

When you can answer those honestly, you stop treating “lower overall participation” as an automatic failure. Sometimes it’s a signal that the program is becoming more targeted and more valuable to the right people. Other times it’s a warning that you’re losing an audience you can’t afford to lose.

Both are actionable. You just can’t see them without segmentation.

Step 4: Use a simple scorecard so decisions stop being personal

This is the point where planning conversations often get political. People have history with programs. Committees are attached. Staff are proud of what they’ve built. Even if the data is clear, decisions can still turn into “defend your program” dynamics.

A lightweight scorecard helps you avoid that.

You’re not trying to create an academic model. You’re trying to make your reasoning consistent and your tradeoffs visible. A 1–5 score across a small set of dimensions is usually enough to do that well.

Most associations benefit from scoring on:

  • Participation strength (trend + repeat behavior, not just totals)
  • Member value signal (feedback and outcomes, however you measure them)
  • Financial impact (where relevant)
  • Cost to deliver (including staff time, not just vendor costs)
  • Strategic importance (mission, credibility, requirement, leadership priorities)

This is also where a hard truth becomes useful: staff capacity is often the limiting factor, not ideas. A program that’s “fine” but consumes an outsized amount of time needs to earn that time the same way a budget item needs to earn dollars.

Step 5: Translate the scores into action buckets

If you only score programs, you’ll end up with a spreadsheet and no plan. The value comes from translating the evaluation into clear next steps so different programs get different treatment, and you stop defaulting to “everything deserves equal effort.”

Most associations can make strong decisions by assigning programs into four buckets:

  • Invest: Strong participation signals and clear value. These are worth expanding, improving, or marketing more aggressively because the core is working.
  • Maintain: Steady performance and meaningful value, but not where you need to add complexity. Protect quality and make small efficiency gains.
  • Redesign: The program matters, but something isn’t clicking — format, timing, audience fit, friction, pricing/packaging, or delivery model. This isn’t “try harder.” It’s “change something specific.”
  • Stop or pause: Weak participation, high delivery cost, and no strong strategic case to keep it as-is.

The “stop or pause” bucket is the emotionally hardest and operationally most important. If you can’t sunset programs cleanly, you don’t really have a program strategy. You have accumulation.

One move that consistently reduces defensiveness is pairing any pause/sunset recommendation with a reallocation statement. You’re not just taking something away, you’re freeing capacity for something members will benefit from more.

Step 6: Share the story in a way leadership and committees can accept

Even the best analysis can fail if it’s presented like a verdict.

Program decisions are identity decisions for a lot of stakeholders. Volunteers invest time. Staff invest pride. Leadership is managing board expectations and member expectations simultaneously. That means your job isn’t just to show numbers — it’s to tell a narrative people can trust.

A useful leadership-ready story usually includes:

  • What we observed (patterns, not every metric)
  • What we’re prioritizing (top investments and why)
  • What we’re changing (redesign list with intent)
  • What we’re sunsetting (paired with reallocation)
  • What we need (budget, staff time, or decisions)

And tone matters. When you frame change around member needs, experience quality, and staff capacity, it lands as responsible stewardship. When you frame it as “this program failed,” you trigger defense and stall out decisions.

Why this work pays off

If this process feels like a heavy lift, that’s not because your team is doing it wrong. It’s because program decisions are genuinely hard when you’re balancing mission, member expectations, staff capacity, and a thousand competing priorities.

But the upside of doing this work—even in a lightweight way—is huge. When you define participation clearly, look at the data you can trust, segment it before you interpret it, and turn it into action buckets, a few important things happen fast:

  • You stop relitigating the same program debates year after year.
  • You get clearer about what members actually use and value.
  • You protect staff time for work that meaningfully moves the association forward.
  • You can explain your decisions with confidence—without needing perfect reporting.

And maybe most importantly: you move from “we’re doing a lot” to “we’re doing the right things, on purpose.”

That’s the difference between a packed calendar and a program strategy.